PUBLICATIONS | Policy Briefs
16 December 2019
Christophe Blot, Paul Hubert
This Policy brief analyses the recent expansionary decisions of the ECB in September 2019, which are now under scrutiny and have even been criticized.
Recent facts confirm the need of an expansionary monetary policy, as inflation expectations are still decreasing and credit remains weak.
We pay a special attention to the three types of risk evoked in the public debate.
First, it has been argued that low interest rates could increase the households saving rate due to an...
12 December 2019
Christophe Blot, Bruno Ducoudré, Éric Heyer, Raul Sampognaro
This Policy brief presents the last OFCE forecasts on the euro area countries and addresses the issue of margins for manoeuvre to cope with an extended period of economic slowdown in the area. Will fiscal rules fetter policy reaction? We forecast a growth rate of 1.2%, but negative risks remain substantial. We then discuss public debt evolution and compute the fiscal policies necessary to reach a 60% public debt over GDP target in 2040...
14 May 2019
Céline Antonin, Mattia Guerini, Mauro Napoletano, Francesco Vona
With public debt amounting to 132.1% of GDP and negative productivity growth over the last twenty years, Italy appears to be stuck in a high-debt and low-growth trap...
02 April 2019
Guillaume Allègre
On 25 September 2015, 193 UN Member States adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. The SDGs define multiple aims: well-being, poverty, health, education, gender equality, decent work, economic growth, reduction of inequalities, innovation, infrastructure investment, inclusive cities, clean water, clean energy, preserving biodiversity, climate change, peace, justice and strong institutions...
02 April 2019
Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Magali Dauvin, Bruno Ducoudré, Raul Sampognaro, Xavier Timbeau, Andrew Watt
In the euro area growth is holding up but the general outlook is less bright than in recent years. The anticipated slowdown largely results from the gradual attenuation of the post-Great Recession recovery momentum and the convergence of growth rates towards a lower potential growth path...
11 December 2018
Adeline Guéret, Paul Malliet, Aurélien Saussay, Xavier Timbeau
The international process for tackling climate change endured several backslashes since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Issues around the respective responsibilities are not fully solved yet. The underlying question of how to share efforts in order to reach a Zero Net Emissions state remains largely unclear and the INDCs process has still to deliver a pathway for decarbonization...
07 May 2018
Francesco Vona
Political acceptability is an essential issue in choosing the appropriate climate policy. Sociologists and behavioral scientists recognize the importance of selecting environmental policies that have broad political support, while economists compare different instruments first based on their efficiency and then by assessing their distributional impacts and thus the political acceptability of such policies...
15 March 2018
Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Paul Hubert
Low inflation despite economic recovery has given rise to the puzzle of “missing inflation”. Yet there would be no puzzle if the recovery is incomplete. While GDP is on the rise, some slack may still be present in some countries of the euro area...
20 December 2017
Christophe Blot, Jérôme Creel, Paul Hubert
The predictability of the exit from balance sheet policies is essential to ensure that financial markets can digest the extra supply of securities that they will face when the ECB will taper.
The question about what the central banks' balance sheets should look like in the “new normal” come down to the objectives of central banking and whether monetary policy should aim to maintain economic and financial stability.
The ECB should consider using balance sheet policies...